4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 7 at the 10

Minnesota Vikings 3 – Pittsburgh Steelers 14

What Actually Happened

(:16) 16-W.Reichard 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-17-R.Wright.

The Three Options

GO +1.88 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +5.46 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 10, worth +0.01 EP
KICK +2.63 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 97% chance to make a 27-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.71 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.07 EP
PUNT -0.01 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model