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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 3 at the 3

Pittsburgh Steelers 24 – Minnesota Vikings 14

What Actually Happened

(4:14) 74-S.Anderson reported in as eligible. 14-K.Gainwell left guard to MIN 1 for 2 yards (7-B.Murphy).

The Three Options

GO +2.60 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.75 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 3, worth +0.10 EP
KICK +1.76 EP
  • 99% chance to make a 20-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.80 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 21, worth -0.62 EP
PUNT -0.22 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth -0.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model