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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 2 at the 2

Minnesota Vikings 14 – Pittsburgh Steelers 24

What Actually Happened

(2:13) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass short right to 1-J.Nailor for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +3.15 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.01 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 2, worth -0.20 EP
KICK +2.02 EP
  • 99% chance to make a 19-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.06 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.60 EP
PUNT -0.34 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model