Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 17 at the 68

Minnesota Vikings 21 – Pittsburgh Steelers 24

(:14) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass incomplete deep middle to 3-J.Addison (25-D.Elliott).

The Three Options

GO -0.60 EP

What Happened

28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +0.29 EP
72% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 68, worth -0.95 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.59 EP