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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 7 at the 52

Atlanta Falcons 17 – Washington Commanders 10

What Actually Happened

(2:00) 13-B.Pinion punts 44 yards to WAS 8, Center-49-L.McCullough. 83-J.Lane MUFFS catch, and recovers at WAS 8.

The Three Options

GO -0.34 EP
Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +2.86 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 52, worth -2.51 EP
KICK -1.09 EP
  • 32% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.74 EP
  • 68% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 49, worth -2.44 EP
PUNT -0.46 EP
What Happened
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 15, worth -0.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model