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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Washington Commanders 4th & 8 at the 23

Washington Commanders 13 – Atlanta Falcons 24

What Actually Happened

(4:26) 16-M.Gay 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way.

The Three Options

GO +0.92 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 15, worth +4.86 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 23, worth -1.26 EP
KICK +0.96 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 90% chance to make a 40-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.27 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 33, worth -1.96 EP
PUNT -0.51 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth -0.51 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model