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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Washington Commanders 4th & 16 at the 74

Washington Commanders 0 – Atlanta Falcons 3

What Actually Happened

(9:09) 10-T.Way punts 47 yards to ATL 27, Center-69-T.Ott, fair catch by 14-J.Agnew.

The Three Options

GO -2.59 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +1.84 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 74, worth -4.59 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

PUNT -1.83 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 32, worth -1.83 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model