4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Washington Commanders 4th & 1 at the 10

Washington Commanders 0 – Atlanta Falcons 10

What Actually Happened

(12:55) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass short right to 1-D.Samuel pushed ob at ATL 6 for 4 yards (20-D.Alford).

The Three Options

GO +3.47 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 9, worth +5.22 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 10, worth -0.21 EP
KICK +1.27 EP
  • 97% chance to make a 27-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.33 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 21, worth -1.00 EP
PUNT -0.32 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth -0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model