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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Jets 4th & 8 at the 76

New York Jets 3 – Dallas Cowboys 17

What Actually Happened

(:36) 14-A.McNamara punts 43 yards to DAL 33, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 16-J.Moreno-Cropper.

The Three Options

GO -1.78 EP
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +0.74 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 76, worth -3.61 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

PUNT -0.83 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 34, worth -0.83 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model