4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Jets 4th & 17 at the 66

New York Jets 3 – Dallas Cowboys 23

What Actually Happened

(11:00) 14-A.McNamara punts 42 yards to DAL 24, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 16-J.Moreno-Cropper. PENALTY on DAL-83-J.Brooks, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at DAL 24.

The Three Options

GO -1.77 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.85 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 66, worth -3.66 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -0.72 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 24, worth -0.72 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model