Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 9 at the 74

Dallas Cowboys 23 – New York Jets 3

(7:58) 5-B.Anger punts 41 yards to NYJ 33, Center-44-T.Sieg. 39-A.Williams to NYJ 33 for no gain (83-J.Brooks).

The Three Options

GO -2.07 EP

40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.51 EP
60% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 74, worth -4.46 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model