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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Jets 4th & 16 at the 30

New York Jets 3 – Dallas Cowboys 30

What Actually Happened

(1:01) 6-N.Folk 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-14-A.McNamara.

The Three Options

GO +0.45 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +5.10 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 30, worth -1.20 EP
KICK +1.08 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 81% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.78 EP
  • 19% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 40, worth -1.91 EP
PUNT +0.08 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth +0.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model