Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 6 at the 61

Dallas Cowboys 30 – New York Jets 6

What Actually Happened

(14:56) 5-B.Anger punts 45 yards to NYJ 16, Center-44-T.Sieg. 39-A.Williams pushed ob at NYJ 31 for 15 yards (2-J.Thomas). DAL-83-J.Brooks was injured during the play.

The Three Options

GO -0.87 EP

45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.15 EP
55% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 61, worth -3.35 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model