4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 7 at the 68

Dallas Cowboys 30 – New York Jets 6

What Actually Happened

(12:17) 5-B.Anger punts 46 yards to NYJ 22, Center-44-T.Sieg, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.33 EP
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 61, worth +1.92 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 68, worth -3.82 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -1.16 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 26, worth -1.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model