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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Jets 4th & 5 at the 43

New York Jets 3 – Dallas Cowboys 3

What Actually Happened

(2:58) 14-A.McNamara punts 33 yards to DAL 10, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 16-J.Moreno-Cropper.

The Three Options

GO +0.58 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.59 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 43, worth -1.93 EP
KICK -0.23 EP
  • 52% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.91 EP
  • 48% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 49, worth -2.55 EP
PUNT -0.00 EP
What Happened
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 12, worth -0.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.59 EP