Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 9 at the 63

Baltimore Ravens 3 – Houston Texans 17

(4:11) 11-J.Stout punts 40 yards to HOU 23, Center-46-N.Moore, downed by BAL-40-T.Buchanan.

The Three Options

GO -1.11 EP

39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.50 EP
61% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 63, worth -3.41 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model