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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Houston Texans 4th & 2 at the 39

Houston Texans 31 – Baltimore Ravens 3

What Actually Happened

(5:59) 15-K.Fairbairn 57 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-6-T.Townsend.

The Three Options

GO +1.16 EP
Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +3.55 EP
  • 43% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 39, worth -2.09 EP
KICK -0.06 EP
What Happened
  • 63% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.54 EP
  • 37% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 48, worth -2.79 EP
PUNT -0.28 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth -0.28 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.21 EP