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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 3 at the 9

Baltimore Ravens 0 – Houston Texans 7

What Actually Happened

(2:01) 33-T.Loop 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout.

The Three Options

GO +3.00 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 6, worth +5.70 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 9, worth +0.26 EP
KICK +1.84 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 26-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.90 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 21, worth -0.50 EP
PUNT +0.14 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth +0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.16 EP