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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 13 at the 32

Houston Texans 7 – Baltimore Ravens 3

What Actually Happened

(11:23) 15-K.Fairbairn 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-6-T.Townsend.

The Three Options

GO -0.10 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +4.56 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 32, worth -1.81 EP
KICK +0.46 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 78% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.28 EP
  • 22% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 42, worth -2.46 EP
PUNT -0.47 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth -0.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model