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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 1 at the 1

Jacksonville Jaguars 0 – Kansas City Chiefs 7

What Actually Happened

(13:41) 16-T.Lawrence up the middle to KC 1 for no gain (32-N.Bolton). FUMBLES (32-N.Bolton), RECOVERED by KC-56-G.Karlaftis at KC 2. 56-G.Karlaftis to KC 3 for 1 yard (33-B.Tuten). The Replay Official reviewed the short of the goal line ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.

The Three Options

GO +4.30 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.96 EP
  • 34% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 1, worth +1.05 EP
KICK +1.97 EP
  • 99% chance to make a 18-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.00 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 21, worth -0.37 EP
PUNT +0.35 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth +0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model