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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 3 at the 50

Minnesota Vikings 7 – Cleveland Browns 7

What Actually Happened

(11:04) 17-R.Wright punts 39 yards to CLE 11, Center-42-A.DePaola, fair catch by 84-G.Larvadain.

The Three Options

GO -0.02 EP
Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +2.86 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 50, worth -3.03 EP
KICK -1.94 EP
  • 25% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.27 EP
  • 75% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 49, worth -3.03 EP
PUNT -0.88 EP
What Happened
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 14, worth -0.88 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.86 EP