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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 2 at the 81

Minnesota Vikings 7 – Cleveland Browns 7

What Actually Happened

(2:41) 17-R.Wright punts 63 yards to CLE 18, Center-42-A.DePaola. 84-G.Larvadain ran ob at CLE 34 for 16 yards (30-C.Ham; 98-B.Richter).

The Three Options

GO -1.42 EP
Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 79, worth +0.65 EP
  • 38% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 81, worth -4.76 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

PUNT -1.91 EP
What Happened
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 38, worth -1.91 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.49 EP