Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 15 at the 79

Minnesota Vikings 14 – Cleveland Browns 17

What Actually Happened

(1:10) 17-R.Wright punts 77 yards to CLE 2, Center-42-A.DePaola, downed by MIN-37-T.Thomas. PENALTY on CLE-28-T.Avery, Offensive Holding, 1 yard, enforced at CLE 2.

The Three Options

GO -2.69 EP

29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +1.76 EP
71% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 79, worth -4.50 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model