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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 1 at the 90

Cleveland Browns 17 – Minnesota Vikings 14

What Actually Happened

(14:17) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 44 yards to MIN 46, Center-50-R.Sunahara. 4-M.Price to CLE 42 for 12 yards (50-R.Sunahara; 28-T.Avery).

The Three Options

GO -1.52 EP
Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 89, worth +0.12 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 90, worth -5.32 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (107 yards).

PUNT -2.55 EP
What Happened
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 47, worth -2.55 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.03 EP