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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 6 at the 33

Minnesota Vikings 14 – Cleveland Browns 17

What Actually Happened

(9:46) 16-W.Reichard 51 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-17-R.Wright.

The Three Options

GO +0.56 EP
Model's Pick
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +4.16 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 33, worth -1.59 EP
KICK +0.44 EP
What Happened
  • 70% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.56 EP
  • 30% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 43, worth -2.13 EP
PUNT -0.35 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model