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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 11 at the 60

Cleveland Browns 17 – Minnesota Vikings 14

What Actually Happened

(3:16) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 43 yards to MIN 17, Center-50-R.Sunahara. 4-M.Price to MIN 20 for 3 yards (31-D.McMillon; 28-T.Avery).

The Three Options

GO -1.38 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +1.66 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 60, worth -2.56 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -0.53 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 19, worth -0.53 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model