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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cleveland Browns 4th & 1 at the 6

Cleveland Browns 0 – Minnesota Vikings 0

What Actually Happened

(8:15) 98-A.Huntington and 74-T.Jenkins reported in as eligible. 10-Q.Judkins right tackle to MIN 4 for 2 yards (55-E.Wilson; 26-T.Jackson).

The Three Options

GO +3.77 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 5, worth +5.99 EP
  • 40% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 6, worth +0.48 EP
KICK +1.99 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 23-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.04 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 21, worth -0.33 EP
PUNT +0.32 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth +0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model