Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New England Patriots 4th & 9 at the 54

New England Patriots 0 – Buffalo Bills 0

(12:26) 17-B.Baringer punts 40 yards to BUF 14, Center-47-J.Ashby, fair catch by 10-K.Shakir.

The Three Options

GO -1.17 EP

36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +2.75 EP
64% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 54, worth -3.39 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model