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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Buffalo Bills 4th & 15 at the 73

Buffalo Bills 3 – New England Patriots 3

What Actually Happened

(2:32) 19-M.Wishnowsky punts 43 yards to NE 30, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 25-M.Jones pushed ob at NE 30 for no gain (28-S.Franklin).

The Three Options

GO -1.83 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +2.10 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 73, worth -3.86 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -1.16 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 31, worth -1.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model