Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 7 at the 73

New England Patriots 20 – Buffalo Bills 17

(6:01) 17-B.Baringer punts 73 yards to end zone, Center-47-J.Ashby, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -1.75 EP

42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +1.41 EP
58% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 73, worth -4.08 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model