4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Buffalo Bills 4th & 10 at the 42

Buffalo Bills 0 – New England Patriots 0

What Actually Happened

(6:24) 19-M.Wishnowsky punts 27 yards to NE 15, Center-69-R.Ferguson, out of bounds. PENALTY on BUF-45-S.Thompson, Illegal Formation, 5 yards, enforced at NE 15.

The Three Options

GO +0.36 EP
Model's Pick
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +4.05 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 42, worth -1.77 EP
KICK +0.05 EP
  • 55% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.10 EP
  • 45% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 49, worth -2.43 EP
PUNT +0.26 EP
What Happened
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 12, worth +0.26 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model