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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q3
Los Angeles Chargers
4th & 2 at the 39
Los Angeles Chargers 10 – Washington Commanders 20
What Actually Happened
(1:55) 10-J.Herbert pass incomplete short right to 83-T.Conklin.
The Three Options
GO
+1.63 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
61% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +3.64 EP
- 39% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 39, worth -1.55 EP
KICK
+0.53 EP
- 64% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.12 EP
- 36% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 48, worth -2.36 EP
PUNT
+0.38 EP
- Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth +0.38 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
