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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 4 at the 36

Los Angeles Chargers 10 – Washington Commanders 27

What Actually Happened

(:05) (Shotgun) 5-T.Lance pass short right to 83-T.Conklin to WAS 15 for 21 yards (35-P.Butler).

The Three Options

GO +0.56 EP
What Happened
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +1.21 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 36, worth -0.06 EP
KICK +2.06 EP
Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.97 EP
  • 29% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 46, worth -0.20 EP
PUNT +0.06 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth +0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.49 EP