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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Washington Commanders 4th & 5 at the 53

Washington Commanders 0 – Los Angeles Chargers 7

What Actually Happened

(8:29) 10-T.Way punts 53 yards to end zone, Center-69-T.Ott, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.47 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.59 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 53, worth -3.08 EP
KICK -1.57 EP
  • 30% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.49 EP
  • 70% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.89 EP
PUNT -0.61 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 15, worth -0.61 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model