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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 7 at the 30

Pittsburgh Steelers 6 – Cleveland Browns 0

What Actually Happened

(3:43) 9-C.Boswell 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-3-C.Waitman.

The Three Options

GO +0.82 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 23, worth +4.36 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 30, worth -1.17 EP
KICK +1.06 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 79% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.77 EP
  • 21% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 40, worth -1.59 EP
PUNT -0.25 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth -0.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model