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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cleveland Browns 4th & 10 at the 35

Cleveland Browns 3 – Pittsburgh Steelers 16

What Actually Happened

(4:13) 25-A.Szmyt 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-R.Sunahara, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.

The Three Options

GO +0.18 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +4.35 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 35, worth -1.54 EP
KICK +0.50 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.72 EP
  • 31% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 45, worth -2.16 EP
PUNT +0.10 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model