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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 3 at the 45

Cleveland Browns 6 – Pittsburgh Steelers 23

What Actually Happened

(13:47) (Shotgun) 8-D.Gabriel pass short left to 16-I.Bond to PIT 38 for 7 yards (26-B.Echols). PIT-26-B.Echols was injured during the play.

The Three Options

GO +0.46 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +3.03 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 45, worth -2.06 EP
KICK -0.69 EP
  • 42% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.80 EP
  • 58% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.53 EP
PUNT +0.03 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 12, worth +0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model