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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 2 at the 30

Cleveland Browns 6 – Pittsburgh Steelers 23

What Actually Happened

(11:59) 56-L.Wypler and 98-A.Huntington reported in as eligible. 10-Q.Judkins up the middle to PIT 24 for 6 yards (24-J.Porter; 25-D.Elliott).

The Three Options

GO +1.70 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +4.15 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 30, worth -1.23 EP
KICK +1.02 EP
  • 79% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.77 EP
  • 21% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 40, worth -1.80 EP
PUNT -0.01 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model