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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 14 at the 14

Cleveland Browns 6 – Pittsburgh Steelers 23

What Actually Happened

(9:33) 25-A.Szmyt 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-R.Sunahara, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.

The Three Options

GO +1.05 EP
  • 23% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.65 EP
  • 77% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 14, worth -0.31 EP
KICK +1.57 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 31-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.70 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 24, worth -1.08 EP
PUNT -0.14 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model