Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 12 at the 58

Cleveland Browns 9 – Pittsburgh Steelers 23

(4:09) (Shotgun) 8-D.Gabriel pass incomplete deep left to 3-J.Jeudy [96-D.Ekuale].

The Three Options

GO -1.16 EP

What Happened

29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +2.42 EP
71% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 58, worth -2.64 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +1.08 EP