Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cleveland Browns 4th & 19 at the 64

Cleveland Browns 0 – Pittsburgh Steelers 3

What Actually Happened

(8:09) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 52 yards to PIT 12, Center-50-R.Sunahara. 85-K.Williams to CLE 41 for 47 yards (5-R.Jenkins). PENALTY on PIT-40-J.Peppers, Illegal Blindside Block, 10 yards, enforced at PIT 20.

The Three Options

GO -2.22 EP

24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +2.72 EP
76% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 64, worth -3.75 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model