Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 12 at the 63

Pittsburgh Steelers 3 – Cleveland Browns 0

(4:02) 3-C.Waitman punts 34 yards to CLE 29, Center-46-C.Kuntz, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.49 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.81 EP
68% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 63, worth -3.48 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model