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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cleveland Browns 4th & 8 at the 50

Cleveland Browns 0 – Pittsburgh Steelers 3

What Actually Happened

(:12) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 21 yards to PIT 29, Center-50-R.Sunahara, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.95 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +2.69 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 50, worth -2.84 EP
KICK -1.57 EP
  • 30% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.38 EP
  • 70% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.84 EP
PUNT -0.53 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 14, worth -0.53 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model