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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Miami Dolphins 4th & 10 at the 39

Miami Dolphins 7 – Los Angeles Chargers 6

What Actually Happened

(12:02) 47-R.Patterson 57 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-16-J.Bailey.

The Three Options

GO -0.06 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +4.08 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 39, worth -1.94 EP
KICK -0.00 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.62 EP
  • 38% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 48, worth -2.60 EP
PUNT -0.39 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.39 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model