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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 8 at the 11

Los Angeles Chargers 6 – Miami Dolphins 7

What Actually Happened

(8:42) 11-C.Dicker 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-R.Lovato, Holder-16-J.Scott.

The Three Options

GO +1.89 EP
Model's Pick
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +6.04 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 11, worth -0.24 EP
KICK +1.37 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 28-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.45 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 22, worth -1.08 EP
PUNT -0.24 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth -0.24 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.52 EP