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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 1 at the 50

Los Angeles Chargers 0 – Miami Dolphins 0

What Actually Happened

(12:26) 10-J.Herbert up the middle to MIA 48 for 2 yards (3-K.Britt).

The Three Options

GO +0.93 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.56 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 50, worth -3.26 EP
KICK -1.83 EP
  • 33% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.03 EP
  • 67% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 49, worth -3.26 EP
PUNT -1.00 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 14, worth -1.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model