Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 14 at the 57

Los Angeles Chargers 9 – Miami Dolphins 10

(1:48) 16-J.Scott punts 39 yards to MIA 18, Center-41-R.Lovato, downed by LAC-36-J.Taylor.

The Three Options

GO -1.24 EP

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +2.94 EP
69% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 57, worth -3.10 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model