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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Miami Dolphins 4th & 2 at the 9

Miami Dolphins 10 – Los Angeles Chargers 9

What Actually Happened

(:04) 47-R.Patterson 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-16-J.Bailey.

The Three Options

GO +1.71 EP
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 7, worth +3.14 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 9, worth +0.06 EP
KICK +2.88 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 97% chance to make a 26-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.95 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.00 EP
PUNT +0.01 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model