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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Miami Dolphins 4th & 18 at the 78

Miami Dolphins 13 – Los Angeles Chargers 23

What Actually Happened

(2:31) 16-J.Bailey punts 57 yards to LAC 21, Center-49-J.Cardona. 20-C.Hart ran ob at LAC 21 for no gain.

The Three Options

GO -2.64 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.15 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 78, worth -4.42 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

PUNT -1.78 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 35, worth -1.78 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model