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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 2 at the 17

Los Angeles Chargers 23 – Miami Dolphins 13

What Actually Happened

(12:50) 11-C.Dicker 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-R.Lovato, Holder-16-J.Scott.

The Three Options

GO +2.49 EP
Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 15, worth +4.91 EP
  • 43% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 17, worth -0.78 EP
KICK +1.43 EP
What Happened
  • 94% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.59 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 27, worth -1.20 EP
PUNT -0.19 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth -0.19 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.06 EP